Egon’s Publications

The House Of Cards Is Coming Down

Moderated February 12th, 2016 by
Categories: All publications, Egon's Publications, King World News
The House Of Cards Is Coming Down

The House Of Cards Is Coming Down
by Egon von Greyerz

 

Deutsche Bank is bankrupt. China’s $30 trillion credit bubble will implode. Most banks will not survive. Banks stocks are down 20-50% this year and credit default swaps are surging in price. Hedge funds and speculators are losing fortunes on a surging yen. Short Yen was a guaranteed winner. But that carry trade is leading to massive market losses with the Yen gaining 10% in 12 days.

Yellen is now worried about interest rates. Well, we told her so in December. More countries are lowering rates to negative. Sweden just cut another 15 basis points to minus 0.5%. Crude oil is making new lows at $26. Stock are crashing around the world.

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Risk Is Now Reaching Dangerous Levels

Moderated February 9th, 2016 by
Categories: All publications, Egon's Publications, King World News
Risk Is Now Reaching Dangerous Levels

Risk Is Now Reaching Dangerous Levels
by Egon von Greyerz

 

In my KWN interview on 31 January 2016 I stressed how the global domino’s are starting to fall with desperate governments applying the few tools they have left to avoid a total collapse.

Japan has desperately tried to save their bankrupt economy with over 20 years of zero interest rate and money printing. Now they have also resorted to negative interest rates like 13 other nations.

The US has three massive credit problems looming with student, car and energy loans likely to soon lead to another subprime crisis.

And the major problems in the debt laden, energy producing emerging markets like Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia and many more.

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Hyperinflation is here

Moderated January 23rd, 2016 by
Categories: All publications, Egon's Publications, King World News

HYPERINFLATION IS HERE
by Egon von Greyerz

Last week I wrote an article for King World News which showed that hyperinflation is on its way in many emerging markets. Soon it will also reach the US, Europe, Japan, China and many other countries.

Hyperinflation has nothing to do with demand but is the effect of economic mismanagement leading to money printing and currency collapse. This trend started over 100 years ago with the creation of the Fed. Since then all major currencies have declined 97-99% in real terms. The best way to measure inflation over time is in gold. For 5,000 years, gold is the only currency that has survived. All other currencies have been printed to death.

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Are We Seeing The Beginning Of A 90% Fall In Stocks?

Are We Seeing The Beginning Of A 90% Fall In Stocks?

Markets can remain irrational for a very long time

by Egon von Greyerz

We ended 2015 as yet another year when most investors felt safe with their stocks, bonds, property and other investments. But sentiment can change very quickly and since the year end the Chinese market is down 14%, the S&P down 6% and most global markets down 6-10%.

Most investors had been hoping that the investment Shangri-La would continue for another year? Little do they realise that current values in no way reflects real values or risk. As we know, markets can remain irrational for a very long time. The risks that one day will bring the world economy down have been with us for quite a few years. In 2007-9 world financial markets were on the verge of collapse but a Central Bank programme of money printing and guarantees amounting to $25 trillion kicked the can down the road yet another time. It is too early to tell if the very strong falls in world stock markets so far in 2016 are the beginning of the biggest bear market since 1929. But is is not unlikely that this is the start of a bear market which will see falls of up to 90% just like the Dow in 1929-32. Fundamentals today are considerably worse than at the beginning of the Great Depression.

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How will the Fed explain away No Rate Increase?

Moderated December 15th, 2015 by
Categories: All publications, Egon's Publications, King World News
How will the Fed explain away No Rate Increase?

How will the Fed explain away No Rate Increase?

Egon von Greyerz

December 14 2015

For face saving reasons the Fed definitely must increase interest rates on the 16th.
This is what the Fed has led the market to believe and any deviation from this would give the Fed a vote of no confidence from the investment world.
Still, it is difficult to comprehend how anyone could have confidence in the Fed. They have no strategy, no policy but are just reacting to events. They even admit this themselves by declaring that their decision is data driven.
But even when the data and events stare them in the face like in 2007-8 they did not recognise the crisis as it was unfolding.
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Paper Gold Doesn’t Glitter

Paper Gold Doesn’t Glitter

PAPER GOLD DOESN’T GLITTER

by Egon von Greyerz

Today when gold in US dollars is making a new correction low, the paper shorts are elated. They believe they can win this game of frightening every gold investor to sell their holding. But this elation is likely to soon turn to desperation.

Supply tight in gold and silver

As I have discussed many times, the physical market in gold and silver is very tight. Bullion banks have low stock levels and central banks have leased or sold a major part of their gold. But since they refuse to be properly audited they are desperately trying to hide the real position. China and India are continuing to buy more than the annual production of gold by the miners. And the supply situation from the refiners is tight with delivery delays for bigger orders.

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How long can a bull, fed on paper money, survive?

How long can a bull, fed on paper money, survive?

A Bull – Fed On Paper Money

by Egon von Greyerz

 

It seems that a bull fed on paper money has eternal life. Whatever the news is, stock markets worldwide react positively. It takes a long time to kill off a secular bull even if it has the wrong diet.

Source Illustration by Karl Gelles USAToday

Central banks have no policy

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When will the Bank Bubble Burst

When will the Bank Bubble Burst

When will the Bank Bubble Burst

by Egon von Greyerz

We just had another confirmation that banks are dealing in sums which they don’t understand themselves. A junior employee in Deutsche Bank (DB) paid $6 billion to a hedge fund which was the gross value of a position. He should have paid the net. That in a nutshell shows the uncontrollable exposure of the banking system which will lead to its downfall.

How can a junior employee in a major bank pay the incredible sum of $6B without any controls whatsoever? This is a world gone mad. Governments print trillions, banks issue derivatives in the quadrillions and banks transact in hundreds of billions every week. The zeros no longer mean anything and have no value. This is all routine stuff for the people dealing in these sums and no one has a clue about the risk or the real exposure.
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Sensational Events Looming?

Sensational Events Looming?

Sensational Events Looming?

by Egon von Greyerz

 

In my most recent article, A Stock Market Collapse and Surge in Gold is Imminent, I discuss the excesses in the world and the effects that will have on the financial system and the stock market as well as on the gold and silver prices.

Yes, some readers might find that a forecast of $10,000 gold and $500 might sound sensational and not serious. Let me make it totally clear that it is not my intention to be sensational. No, what I am describing are just the consequences of total economic mismanagement by world governments and central banks for the last hundred years.
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A stock market collapse and surge in gold is imminent

Moderated October 10th, 2015 by
Categories: All publications, Egon's Publications
A stock market collapse and surge in gold is imminent

A stock market collapse and surge in gold is imminent
What will be the trigger?

by Egon von Greyerz

 

At last we are here. It has been a long wait for gold and silver holders. For the wealth preservationists who have held gold/silver since the beginning of the 2000s, it has just been tedious since the highs in 2011. What has happened in the last four years in the world economy has confirmed the importance of capital preservation. But for precious metals investors who came in nearer the top, it has clearly been a nerve racking time.

Whenever you invested in gold or silver won’t matter in the next few years. Because we are likely to very soon start the rise of the precious metals that in all likelihood will lead to new highs by 2016 or maybe even before.

Governments are destroying the value of money

Since 2008 central banks, governments and commercial lenders have been competing in throwing cheap or free money at the world of an unprecedented magnitude. They have increased world debt in the last 7 years by almost 50% to nearer $ 220 trillion. So that is a fresh $ 70 trillion that has been created from nothing. No goods were produced, no services were provided against these $ 70 trillion. Money is supposed to be a medium of exchange and a store of value. It does act as a medium of exchange today but since governments are determined to mismanage the economy and to issue fresh money whenever they run out, it is the most useless medium of exchange imaginable.

Just in the last 100 years since the creation of the Fed, all currencies in the world have lost 97-99% of their real purchasing power. Any cash saved for the last 100 years is today virtually worthless.

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