UNPRECEDENTED GLOBAL RISK – NO ONE CARES

“Risk involves the chance an investment’s actual return will differ from the expected return. Risk includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment.” (Investopedia) So there we have it. Risk means that you can lose part or all of the investment. Normally valuations take risk into account. But is the world really valuing the following risks accurately:

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GOLD HAS BROKEN OUT – DON’T BE LEFT BEHIND

The coming gold and silver moves in the next few months will really surprise most investors as market volatility increases substantially. It seems right now that “All (is) quiet on the Western Front” as Erich-Maria Remarque wrote about WWI. Ten years after the Great Financial Crisis started and nine years after the Lehman collapse, it seems that the world is in better shape than ever. Stocks are at historical highs, interest rates at historical lows, house prices are booming again and consumers are buying more than ever.

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THERE JUST ISN’T ENOUGH GOLD

There are lies damned lies and Central Bank Gold statistics. Total official global gold holdings are reported to be 33,000 tonnes. That is 19% of all the gold ever produced in the world. But how can anyone ever believe any of these figures. Because no central bank ever has a public audit of all its gold holdings. Since the gold belongs to the people, they have the right to know if the gold actually exists, especially since the gold reserves are backing the currency.

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RISK ON: WAR, ECONOMY, DEBT, DOLLAR – RISK OFF: GOLD

Totally irresponsible policies by Governments and Central Banks have created the most dangerous situation that the world has ever experienced. Risk doesn’t arise quickly as the result of a single action or event. No, risk of the magnitude that the world is experiencing today is the result of many years or decades of economic mismanagement.

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FINAL CURRENCY DEBASEMENT TO ZERO HAS STARTED

Fake money has created a totally uneven playing field for most ordinary people. Money used to represent a medium of exchange that would facilitate bartering. Instead of exchanging goods or services, people would receive a piece of paper that was equal to the value of their goods or services. This was initially an honest system when for each service or goods offered there was only one bank note issued. Eventually the banker started to cheat and issued a lot more money/paper than the counter value produced in kind.

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DEBT SLAVERY + FAKE MONEY = FINAL COLLAPSE

Over the last 150 years, the West has gone from human slavery to debt slavery. Slavery was officially outlawed in most countries between the mid 1800s and early 1900s. In the British Empire, it was abolished in 1834 and in the US in 1865 with the 13th amendment. But it didn’t take long for a different and much more subtle form of slavery to be introduced. It started officially in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

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WILL PRINTING HALF A QUADRILLION DOLLARS SAVE US?

Stock investors are rejoicing about stock markets making new highs in many countries, totally oblivious of the risks or the reasons. It seems that this is an unstoppable rally in a “new normal” market paradigm. No major increase is expected in the inflation rate or the historically low interest rates. The present rally has lasted 8 years since the 2009 low. There is virtually no fear in markets so investors see no reason why this favourable climate would not continue for another 8 years at least.

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Fake Money

BANK ASSETS ARE EPHEMERAL – HERE TODAY GONE TOMORROW

It is not only paper gold which is Fake. Few investors realise that most of their investments are Fake. Fake news and Fake assets are everywhere. Let’s start with social media which dominates major parts of the world. Facebook for example has 2 billion active users. WhatsApp has 1.2 billion users and Instagram 700 million. There will obviously be quite a lot of overlap between the various social media. But what it is clear that these three Apps reach billions of people and their power is much bigger than that of any other media; Social Media has more impact than newspapers or than television and is the only media that 2-3 billion people follow regularly. Most people and in particular young people don’t watch television and don’t read the papers. They get all their “news” from social media.

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THE GOLD PRICE IS FAKE NEWS

Lethargic summer markets tend to instil a sense of false security. Stocks and property are near all-time highs, interest rates are at 72 year lows and most investors feel richer than ever. Central banks signal strong economies with indications of higher interest rates and tapering of their balance sheets.

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CHRONIC CRISES NEXT FOR YELLEN AND THE FED

“The report of my death has been grossly exaggerated” are words that Janet Yellen is likely to utter within the next few years. It was of course Mark Twain who said it over 100 years ago, before the Fed even existed. Yellen has recently stated that there won’t be another financial crisis in her lifetime and she will most likely have to eat those words in coming years. We know that the Fed’s record of economic forecasting has been abysmal. They have never forecast or anticipated a single economic downturn. Here is what Greenspan said in 2010: “We didn’t forecast better because we can’t”

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HUBRIS KILLS WHILST GOLD PROTECTS

Hubris is a deadly sin. It is an arrogance and conceit of the highest degree that eventually leads to failure. As we reach the final stages of the current economic cycle, hubris is prevalent everywhere. Central bankers and bankers believe that they can continue to create wealth by printing and borrowing money. Since it has worked so well for 100 years in this latest cycle, why can’t it continue? Throughout history, governments have attempted to set aside the natural laws of sound money by manipulating the financial system using criminal methods like counterfeiting and creating money out of thin air. With their hubris, they believe they can get away with their evil deeds. All they would need to do is to look at history. Long term, no one has ever got away with creating a system based on fake money, unlimited debt, zero or negative cost of money with the government and the bankers being the main beneficiaries. They will of course not succeed this time either but the power and massive wealth created by a small elite make the “Powers That Be” so corrupt and so arrogant that they can’t even see the consequences.

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WILL GOLD REACH $2.6 MILLION OR JUST $150,000

Last week, we were again reminded of the global instability and disequilibrium. In the UK, the conservative Prime Minister Theresa May decided 9 weeks ago to call an election. This was done due to the conservatives being 20 percentage points ahead of their Labour rivals in the opinion polls which would have led to a strong backing for the Brexit negotiations as well as another five years in power. But things went disastrously wrong. An extremely badly run campaign by Mrs May and an opportunistically clever campaign led by the Labour leader Corbyn have led to a hung parliament. Like all socialists, Corbyn promised the earth and no one cared about that this would bankrupt the country. The conservatives are now dependent on a small Northern Ireland party as well the Scottish conservatives. The effect of the election is total political chaos that will weaken a UK which is already in a mess with a high debts and untenable budget and trade deficits. But the EU bureaucrats led by Mr Junker are of course delighted. They know now that Mrs May who was for a hard Brexit will have to go at some point and the EU will have the upper hand to reach a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all.

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CASSANDRA, CENTRAL BANKS and GOLD

The general public doesn’t like hearing what some of us who are Cassandras have to say. Because our message is does not fit in with the choir of propaganda and lies. We are predicting a future for the world which is unpleasant for most people and therefore few believe our predictions. It is part of human nature to believe that the current state of affairs will go on forever. And that is the case whether times are good or bad. In bad times, everyone believes that it will never end. I remember vividly the 1970s in the UK when it felt like the severe recession was going to be permanent. It is the same now; conventional wisdom says that the economy will continue to grow at a steady pace and so will assets such as stocks and property. Very few realise that the growth we have seen in the last few decades is totally false and based on credit and printed money.

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GOLD SHORTS – ALWAYS NAKED LIKE THE EMPEROR

The most expensive investment anyone can buy today is paper gold. For $1,260, an investor will get a piece of paper saying he owns 1 ounce of gold. But he is unlikely to ever see that gold. Firstly, most investors who buy paper gold have no understanding of the real reason for holding gold and […]

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